By 2035, more skilled jobs and healthcare positions are expected to offset the millions of jobs lost by automation and artificial intelligence
New research suggests a fundamental shift in job prospects as more skilled, education and healthcare roles offset the millions of jobs likely to be lost due to the application of new technologies in here 2035.
The projections are made in a paper analyzing the structural changes taking place in the UK economy. The study presents the implications for the labor market and the occupational structure of employment up to 2035. The projections focus on long-term structural trends such as demographics, economic changes and automation, rather than on short-term impacts on the labor market and future skills needs.
The research, carried out by the Institute for Employment Research at the University of Warwick, in collaboration with Cambridge Econometrics, is part of a wider research program led by the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER).
The paper can be viewed here: https://www.nfer.ac.uk/media/5076/the_skills_imperative_2035_working_paper_2_headline_report.pdf
It also projects that:
- There will be 2.6 million new jobs by 2035, the majority of which will be filled by women.
- Employment in the health sector is expected to grow the fastest, with around 369,000 new jobs by 2035.
- Almost all new jobs created by 2035 will be in the liberal and related professions.
- The UK economy will experience a substantial recovery in gross value added (GVA) output by 2035, following the sharp drop in the pandemic. The sectors of construction (+2.4 percent per year) and trade, accommodation and transport (+2.1 percent per year) should lead the way.
- The jobs most vulnerable to automation are currently predominantly occupied by men.
- The sectors that will see the biggest job losses will be in manufacturing: metal products (-41,000) and other transportation equipment (-22,000).
- Job losses will be concentrated among blue-collar manual occupations, especially in areas where automation is possible, as well as among less-skilled white-collar non-manual occupations.
- Current trends that see young people gaining increasingly higher qualifications (replacing generally less qualified people leaving the labor market) will continue.
The paper recommends that:
- Given the cross-cutting nature of the challenges posed by these anticipated labor market changes, a similar cross-cutting body should be created, reporting directly to the Cabinet Office. This body would be responsible for working effectively across government departments, with employers and others to ensure that appropriate strategies are developed to (i) understand the implications of these changes in more detail and (ii) define how government, employers, training providers and the education system should respond, drawing on views and expertise from across government and outside.
- Industry leaders and representative bodies, together with regional and local partners, including Combined Municipal Authorities and Local Authorities, are assessing what these projections mean for job and output growth. in their sectors/industries and/or for the critical professions they will need in the future and start planning the actions they need to take.
Jude Hillary, Senior Research Program Fellow and Co-Head of UK Policy and Practice at NFER, said:
“The impact of the adoption of new technologies, coupled with major demographic and environmental changes and other factors, is expected to disrupt the labor market over the coming decades. This will have an impact on both the jobs that will be available and the skills workers will need to fill those jobs.
“This research provides essential information on the evolution of the economy and the labor market. The next article in this project will focus more specifically on the essential job skills that will be needed in the future.
“If we as a country are to thrive, it is essential that we heed these warnings and begin to prepare to ensure that we equip our workforce with the right skills, to do the right job. at the right time.”
Josh Hillman, director of education at the Nuffield Foundation, said:
“Understanding the future trajectories of labor market demands is essential for young people, educators and employers. This latest working paper challenges common assumptions about declining job supply and offers a more nuanced perspective, taking into account results by gender and sector.
“In the next stage of the project, these labor market projections will be used to identify the changing demand for critical job skills in different sectors of the economy.”
The paper is the second in a series of reports from a five-year research program that will project employers’ essential skills needs and likely supply by 2035, identify where skills gaps are likely to be, and establish what are the implications for the education system (including how to target aid to groups most vulnerable to the impact of labor market transformation).
The Skills Imperative 2035: Essential Skills for Tomorrow’s Workforce, funded by the Nuffield Foundation, sees NFER and its co-researchers working with employers, policy makers and education leaders to address these pressing issues around education, skills and work.
Jude Hillary works with Professor Andy Dickerson and Professor Steven McIntosh from the University of Sheffield, Professor Rob Wilson from the Institute for Employment Research at the University of Warwick, Professor Bryony Hoskins from the University of Roehampton, Shyamoli Patel and Ha Bui of Cambridge Econometrics, Kantar Public and Naomi Phillips of the Learning and Work Institute.
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